The USDA backed off U.S. corn estimates in October, just a bit, and it sent the market into a frenzy. That's old news by now. What isn't old news is what the final numbers will be. Will Indiana corn yield still remain at a remarkable 160+ bushels per acre, down a bit from September? Or will dry patches and replanted corn finally rear the ugly head of reality, and drop the final estimate a bit more?
It's too early to tell. But farmers in the Winchester area are examples of those who aren't harvesting 160 bushels of corn and 60 bushels of beans on every acre. "We hit a dry stretch from mid-July through mid-August," one says. "Near here they would get an inch, maybe we would get two-tenths."
His neighbor nodded his head in agreement. As a result both had harvested corn from 140 bushels per acre to near 180 bushels per acre so far, Wet weather had brought a standstill to harvest for the time being. The one farmer had harvested soybeans near 60 bushels per acre for a field average, but he had also harvested soybeans in the 30's.
"The yield monitor rally jumps around a lot," he says. "It depends upon where you are and how much rain fell there."
Many of the cornfields replanted after the May 9-20 cool spell have yet to be harvested. It's believed most of those fields at least made black layer, since frost held off until October 11 in central Indiana. But how yields coming out of those fields stack up is yet to be determined. It's estimated that as much as 20% of the corn was replanted in a good share of central Indiana.
Statistics experts say that should be figured in based upon how they do random checks within a field. There should have been adequate chance that a viable percentage of those replanted fields were included in the checks, and that they have been thus factored into yield estimates for Indiana completed so far.
Final yield reports will be interesting to say the least. One thing is obvious- while many are enjoying very good yields, it's not a banner year for everyone, especially not on both corn and soybeans.